Several Dimensions' Looking of Manufacturers
"Their looking…What's happen on the next year?"
Although all the government sounds will expect the Thailand's economic on next year will has more a good trend than this year with the growth rate about 5-5.5%, It will has a supporting force from the investment of government and the proceduring policy of unbalanced budget at a high frame of payment up to 1.46 hundred million bahts or about 1 .7% of GOP.
Especially, the investments of government projects have a plan to draw budgets on mid-year of 2007 such as the 98,000 million bahts for public transportation system, 124,000 million bahts for residences and 60,000 million bahts for water resource development projects. So these projects will affect to the overall investments on the next year that can expand to 8-9% with comparing on this year at 4.8-5.8%.
In Addition, the pressure of inflation rate will trend to reduce down to 1.5-3% from the situation of oil price's world. The crude oil price of Tubi market will expect to 50-70 US dollars per ballel from the average price 65 US dollars per ballel on this year. And including the supporting force of the trend of interest rate will begin to reduce and FED's interest rate will expect to reduce down to 4.75-5% from 5.25% of this year and the RP interest of 14 days at 5% at the present will down 0.5% on the next year. According to the interest of market will reduce for increasing the power of buying capacity of consumers in the one way.
But it cannot judge that the economic will grow up because there are a lot of conditions both in foreign countries and in country affecting to the negative situation. At the lest time, the Organization of Economic and Cooperation Development (OECD) reported the overview of world economic in 6 months and will expect the growth rate on this year still expand strongly up to 3.2%. But it has concerned to slow down to 2.5% on the next year with affecting from the withdrawing of US's economic.
This trend of withdrawing will slow down to 3.3% from the old expectation at 3.6% and may be down to 2.4%. So the Thailand's export with the 70% sharing of GDP cannot avoid to be impacted and might to slow down to expend only 10.0-15.0% from expended export on this year 17%.
And the problem is aggravating the Thailand export is the adaptation of money value more quickly during 1 year or from 40 bahts per US dollar to be a stronger value up to 36 bahts per US dollar or stronger than 10% during 1 year.
The stronger money value hasn't occurred in the nature, but it has been by molting violently. It has caused from interest loan in country higher than other countries so the investments of foreign money have flowed in country. And including the money value spinning of speculator so we must to find out the management method to build the stability of baht value and setting of regulation to fix the timing of bahts buying-selling for protection of speculation such as if you bought baht money, you cannot sell before I year and other methods. So these problems are very concern and the government must brave to make a decision.
The past time, academicians or some government agencies had shew their thinking of the situation's baht value and exporting sector that they are still good but nobody can know the real problems as equal as the exports. It has not only the exporting manufacturers to get many impacts but also these existing impacts have a chain characteristic and have affected to buying power of consumers and be a puller of Thailand economic finally.
However we have evaluated the situation of principle industries on the next year as electronic, electric household, automotive and components and iron products which will good expend. But in the industries of food and fashion will meet to the competition violently from the competition countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and China where have lower capital cost than Thailand.
Modern Manufacturing
